[Jordan the 'Semi-Skeptic']

It is mathmaticly imposible that we are alone in the Galaxy, because of the drake equation. This equation was created as an attempt to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy which we might make contact with. see Wiki for more details, as I have little time to basicly retype it at this moment.
In short, using drakes original values, within our own galaxy, there are at least ten et races with which we may be able to comicate with, that means tha potentialy there are millions of aliens out there in other galaxies.

[Wei]

As much as I am a fan of Occam's Razor, things are rarely 'equal' in science. When dealing with absolutes of science, even a tenth of a percent difference throws Occam's Razor out the window.

Drake's Equation, for those not familiar with it, gives mathematical probabilities of life in any given galaxy. Using our own, for example, Drake's Equation goes:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

N* represents the number of stars in a galaxy. The number generally given for the Milky Way is 100 billion. So, N* = 100,000,000,000

fp represents the percentage of said stars that have planets orbiting them. The current estimate is 20-50%. For the sake of this, we are going to split the difference, at 35%. So, fp = .35

ne represents how many of planets orbiting each star is believed capable of supporting life. The current estimate ranges from 1 to 5 planets. So, again splitting the difference, ne = 3 planets.

fl indicates what percentage of said planets are believed to actually support life. This is where it gets tricky. A lot of people use 100%, claiming that if it does not support it now, it either once did or will eventually. So, just for sake of argument, we are going to go with 100%, making fl = 1.

fi is the percentage of fl where intelligent life either has, does, or will exist. Again, most groups use 100%, possibly just to be optimistic. So, fi = 1.

fc is the percentage of fi that has the desire and ability to communicate. The commonly accepted numbers are 10 to 20%. As above, we split it, making fc = .15

fL is the percentage of the planet's life span can/will/does a communicating civilization survive. If we suddenly die out tomorrow, the answer for Earth would be 1/100,000,000. So, using that as a reference, fL = .00000001.

N is the answer. Using the numbers above, N = 100,000,000,000 * .35 * 3 * 1 * 1 * .15 * .000001 = 15,750 civilizations.

[specopsman]

I just sort of realized something, what is the et's are broadcasting on a diferent frequency? maybe they have been toalking since we were throwiong rocks at mamoth, but we can't communicate because of the simple fact that we are at two different frequencys. and since the radio anteni are hocked up to computers, what is they are rinning it in a strange or obsure format, then what? i think sett needs an astronamical grant to entertain these theiroes.

[Byron]

specopsman, on Nov 12 2008, 07:32 PM, said:

I just sort of realized something, what is the et's are broadcasting on a diferent frequency? maybe they have been toalking since we were throwiong rocks at mamoth, but we can't communicate because of the simple fact that we are at two different frequencys. and since the radio anteni are hocked up to computers, what is they are rinning it in a strange or obsure format, then what? i think sett needs an astronamical grant to entertain these theiroes.

Would that lead into the realm of the two civilizations (us and the hypothetical alien civilization) discovering and using two different methods of communication unknown to each other? I'm a bit unclear when it comes to how frequencies are used and broadcast in outer space and the chances of reception from some civilization in a certain period of time (it makes me want to do some research ).

As for the Drake Equation, I have read and heard a bit about it, but I have to thank Wei for the description. The number seems big but that's considering the possibility of life in general- past, present and future. And also, compare that amount to the amount of planets and there's an obvious difference. Still, I can't deny that the though of over 15,000 civilizations aside from our own could or could have potentially existed out in our galaxy. That is, if I understood the example correctly...

[Crash]

Occum's razor is awesome but almost never applicable.

it's more understandable to me to think that ETs would have a different form of communication because they are from a different environment. Maybe this can be literally just a language barrier but we con barely comprehend a lot of the goings on of the universe because we are exposed to only one environment from the beginning, and assuming that the ETs are more ancient would also assume they have more advanced technology (especially if you look at them coming here for the last century or more) and therefore a different understanding of the possibilities of communication (as an example, we have only recently delved into technology like the phone and internet that would be only fantasic previously).

[Byron]

Crash, on 17 April 2009 - 02:04 AM, said:

Occum's razor is awesome but almost never applicable.

it's more understandable to me to think that ETs would have a different form of communication because they are from a different environment. Maybe this can be literally just a language barrier but we con barely comprehend a lot of the goings on of the universe because we are exposed to only one environment from the beginning, and assuming that the ETs are more ancient would also assume they have more advanced technology (especially if you look at them coming here for the last century or more) and therefore a different understanding of the possibilities of communication (as an example, we have only recently delved into technology like the phone and internet that would be only fantasic previously).

I've been giving this a little thought since I was looking through the thread again.

Here's something that seems apparent. If an ET civilization out there was far enough along in the process of evolution that they are aware of the whole frequency spectrum, then attempts at contact via broadcast would seem reasonable, wouldn't it? Would they be aware of the existing language patterns transmitted via those frequencies, if they used some other sort of method for communication?

Then again, an obvious question would arise- would another civilization be actively monitoring for any sort of contact?

[specopsman]

also, you would have to take into account that every time we set off a nuclear weapon, that sends a proverbial shockwave across the universe, and that could mean one of three things, one, they are smart enough to stay hidden as they spy on us, two, they are not out there, or do not have the technology to see the shockwave, or, three, the nuclear weapon to them is nothing but a firecracker, which is highly disturbing for many reasons, like if there is something more destructive; and we "invent" it, we could destroy our selves, the planet would obviously survive (though altered) as it has for millennium.

[Byron]

specopsman, on 10 June 2009 - 06:57 PM, said:

also, you would have to take into account that every time we set off a nuclear weapon, that sends a proverbial shockwave across the universe, and that could mean one of three things, one, they are smart enough to stay hidden as they spy on us, two, they are not out there, or do not have the technology to see the shockwave, or, three, the nuclear weapon to them is nothing but a firecracker, which is highly disturbing for many reasons, like if there is something more destructive; and we "invent" it, we could destroy our selves, the planet would obviously survive (though altered) as it has for millennium.

Here are just a couple more thoughts that came to mind. Nothing truly specific or that well supported. But I thought maybe I'd post them and get some other ideas as well.

I was just thinking about this. If space is infinite/endless (at least that's how I currently understand it), and there is life in many spots around the universe (but very VERY spaced away from each other), then this might be a good question.

What if one of these civilizations, once they evolved far enough as a planet, did master traveling at around light speeds (or faster). Today, we're making predictions of planets that may contain life. When technologies continue to evolve, future predictions will be much more accurate since there will be more information gathered.

I would think that maybe one civilization or planet would have evolved far enough to travel at these speeds. And with more accurate predictions based on better supported predictions, maybe Earth would have been considered a planet that contained life (in their perspective?).

Still, that gets me wondering about other things- for instance, the "start" of our universe. Would there have been enough time to allow this?

Again, these are just some thoughts I had that I will probably look into to gain a better understanding of. I'm not really basing this on anything I've actually learned.